How to prepare for ... what, exactly

Sat, 03 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

In my final post for 2025 I theorised that is was the worst year yet. So the coming year (of which we already had a few days) is quickly doing the “yet” bit, starting with the Special Military Trumperation in which Fort Bragg Cartel actually managed to not completely fuck it up (unlike that time in North Korea).

I actually thought this’ll happen before the end of February. But what does it mean exactly, except for the bragging part that I was right? I could probably bet on it, like this dude who is seemingly clairvoyant because they bought Venezuela war bets right before the invasion? Or was this an alt for Pete Kegsbreath?

I think this year we’ll finally see the effects of the shitshow on the global and US-dependent economy; this is the first year in my career when I am genuinely uneasy (that’s an euphemism for scared shitless) about the prospects of the continued employment - it doesn’t matter if you’re doing a good timely work when the pressure happens, perceived scarcity leads to suboptimal outcomes. After all, AI doesn’t really need to be capable of replacing workers - their bosses need to be convinced that AI is capable of doing so.

And, speaking of convincing, I’m genuinely afraid that comunist party will convince themselves that their импортозамещение of ASML is successful enough, so they can wreck taiwan together with their chip manufacturing, sabotage ASML and fabs elsewhere, and become the world’s sole source of high performance computing.

The US has already surpassed most of the authoritarian countries on authoritarian scale. I don’t see any way for that to reverse. Some people genuinely think that midterm elections will be a factor. These are the same people who told me about institutions, checks and balances, etc.

And to finish this pointless rant - an answer to the question “why do you care so much”?

There are lots of very public people who confidently tell their audience that they know how the world works. What follow is, frankly, absolute garbage. Either it’s some stupid conspiracy theory about jews, or soros, or if we go back in time some rotschilds and lizard people. Or it’s some lopsided ideological bullshit like geopolitics, or evangelical eternal battle between angels and demons. Unfortunately most of these people didn’t actually try to manage even the simplest logistical chain for a factory. Or a construction of a datacenter. It is actually funny to read when somebody tries to explain to me how easily Intel can start fabbing 5nm in the US, like, in a month or so.

Unlike these conspiracy theorists, I don’t know how the world works. I know how parts of it work, and I know some of the connections within and between these parts. And some of these connections depend on the rules, stability, predictability, and free global supply chain. And I am scared shitless of these bulls in china shop accidentally breaking a connection which we can no longer replace.

The worst year

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Of course it could be worse. The problem is - there’s always could be worse, but there’s also could be better. It’s hard to operate in hypotheticals but sometimes it is blatantly clear that it could be better, damn it.

I participate in a few chat groups, most of them just people who know each other for a while (20 years or so). And I was surprisingly horrified to see some of these people go full moral nihilism this year, quote “if ICE would offer a 350k salary, I’ll go there”. And no moral qualms against working at certain companies, which names are withheld because they index the internet and make a list of future targets for drones.

My resolution for the next year would be to avoid working for ICE and similar companies.

Life on Think before you push the button

How to prepare for ... what, exactly

The worst year